RUSSH WORK
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writing

Posts: 12 Latest: 2026.05.19 Archetypes: 7 THESIS / 5 FIELD
  1. /01 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside Atlas: a 19-signal composition scorer for off-market real estate

    Atlas surfaces off-market real estate leads by composing 19 distinct signal types across 568,135 parcels in Wake and Durham counties, each signal weighted with an exponential half-life decay. Vision signals from Google Street View and satellite pairs scored by Gemma 3 27B. Total POC spend $54.

    PROJECT: ATLAS VERSION: POC READ: 15 MIN
  2. /02 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside Marketing Bot v2: five architectural decisions in a multi-pass orchestration system

    Five architectural decisions in a multi-pass orchestration system that produces senior-strategist-tier deliverables at software-tier cost. The alternatives rejected, and what each teaches about FDAA judgment in high-quality-bar long-context generation.

    PROJECT: MARKETING BOT VERSION: V2.0 READ: 11 MIN
  3. /03 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside MES Open: five architectural decisions in an algorithmic trading system

    Five architectural decisions in an algorithmic trading system targeting the New York open on Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures. The alternatives rejected, and what each teaches about FDAA judgment in a high-noise low-sample domain where a human discretionary baseline outperforms the model.

    PROJECT: MES VERSION: PHASE 3 READ: 12 MIN
  4. /04 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside the corridor pipeline: Python automation for LIHTC research

    A 15-script Python pipeline that fuses Census ACS, HUD QCT, IRS OZ, USDA Food Atlas, state DDD, and land bank inventory data on a parcel key, scores against the state QAP, and produces an LP-memo-ready output. Five architectural decisions, transferable lessons, free public-data foundation.

    PROJECT: MOSAIC VERSION: V1 READ: 12 MIN
  5. /05 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside TrialEdge: a calibrated probability ensemble for FDA catalyst prediction

    TrialEdge predicts FDA PDUFA catalyst outcomes. 4,032 tracked entities, 208 labeled outcomes, AUC 0.686 on the held-out set. The architecture is intentionally small, intentionally calibrated, and intentionally cheap. This post walks the architecture decisions, the eval rig, the cost economics, and what would change starting over.

    PROJECT: TRIALEDGE VERSION: V1.6 READ: 15 MIN
  6. /06 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside the Mosaic feasibility workflow: how I underwrite CRE deals with Claude

    The Mosaic feasibility workflow is a Claude prompt suite that produces bank-quality CRE feasibility studies in 90 minutes instead of 30 hours. Standard Underwriting Schema v2.0, dual-scenario NOI, four creative structures, lender probability matching. The eat-your-own-dog-food proof point in the portfolio.

    PROJECT: CRE VERSION: PROMPT SUITE READ: 11 MIN
  7. /07 2026.05.19 THESIS

    Inside DeckTrainer: a Simply-Piano-style coaching tool for the Hercules DJControl

    DeckTrainer is a learn-to-DJ coaching tool for the Hercules DJControl Starlight and Mix. Scope discipline, hardware-constraint surfacing, phased build plan, and a drill engine designed around deterministic scoring functions. The scoping-discipline proof point in the portfolio.

    PROJECT: DECKTRAINER VERSION: PHASE 1 READ: 11 MIN
  8. /08 2026.05.19 FIELD NOTE

    Field Note: stacking R/ECAP, QCT, OZ, and DDD for LIHTC competitive advantage

    Five public-records distress designations on a single parcel: QCT, OZ, DDD, R/ECAP, USDA food desert. The Mosaic framework to identify and stack them, and the AI architecture that compresses three weeks of research to three hours.

    CRE / LIHTC MOSAIC READ: 7 MIN
  9. /09 2026.05.19 FIELD NOTE

    Field Note: matching a $25M hospitality deal to five lenders in thirty minutes

    Hospitality debt sourcing as constraint satisfaction followed by ranking. The architecture that compresses a week of broker research into thirty minutes of operator review, and what it leaves to the human relationship.

    CRE / HOSPITALITY DEBT-SIZING READ: 7 MIN
  10. /10 2026.05.19 FIELD NOTE

    Field Note: the NOI projection gap and why hospitality sponsors systematically over-promise

    A coastal hospitality asset has an appraisal-stabilized NOI and a sponsor pro forma that differ by 17 percent. Both numbers are produced in good faith. The gap decomposes into four components. This Field Note walks the decomposition and the AI architecture that surfaces it for a credit committee.

    CRE / HOSPITALITY NOI-PROJECTION READ: 7 MIN
  11. /11 2026.05.19 FIELD NOTE

    Field Note: reading a brokerage flyer through an AI underwriting lens

    A brokerage marketing flyer is the highest-volume unstructured document in CRE. Four lines actually matter; the rest is decorative. This Field Note walks the AI-architected workflow that closes the gap between flyer claims and underwritten reality.

    CRE / ACQUISITIONS BROKERAGE READ: 7 MIN
  12. /12 2026.05.19 FIELD NOTE

    Field Note: packaging an emerging sponsor for institutional capital

    An emerging sponsor faces a structural problem in the capital stack: senior debt is reachable, LP equity is the wall. The four packaging patterns institutional LPs evaluate against, and the AI-architected workflow that produces the documentation.

    CRE / CAPITAL-STACK EMERGING-SPONSOR READ: 7 MIN